Value
in NFL Betting thorough football handicapping!
We all know there is no value in NFL betting without thorough
handicapping. You’d have to be a mindless square to assume
you could ever squeeze value out of matches without doing any handicapping
at all. This is exactly the reason why many sports bettors resort
to buying picks off the internet, or from their bookmaker. Obviously,
these guys have recognized the importance of handicapping. The big
question is: is it enough? Will buying NFL selections from well-known
handicappers boost your betting? Will their predictions provide
you enough value?
You see, the biggest issue in sports betting is not simply to predict
which team will win this or that or the other matchup. You can bet
the favorite all the time and not get much value out of the whole
affair. Bookmakers release their lines according to the handicapping
they themselves do. Well-established bookmakers have whole teams
of handicappers working for them, and they twist and turn their
lines until there is absolutely no juice left in them. This obviously
means, betting the favorite will provide you with no edge whatsoever.
The bookmaker’s goal is to balance every single match-up as
well as possible, to get an approximately equal number of bettors
betting both sides of it. This way, they will able to pay out the
winners from what the losers lose, and keep the vig (or juice) for
themselves.
This is the ideal setup. In reality though, achieving the balance
is damn near impossible. This is where your chance rears its head.
There are certain match-ups that have the bookmaker at the mercy
of the mass of bettors. Home underdog games are like this. People
like a favorite so much, they bet one side of the bet in overwhelming
numbers, even though home field advantage is one of the most underrated
handicapping factors out there. Most squares completely disregard
it. Statistics show that home underdogs are capable of pulling out
upsets SU (straight up) more often than the public would ever believe,
and when it comes to ATS (against the spread) these dogs are downright
good.
For some reason though, the public seems to repeatedly disregard
these fact. They bet the favorite in such big numbers that the bookie
is forced to shift his lines to compensate, against his better judgment.
This is what gives birth to the hidden value you’re looking
for. Sometimes the value is so obvious, even the bookmaker decides
to make some money by going up against the squares.
This is your chance to generate some real value. As the bookie moves
his lines to make squares bet the dog too, he inevitably gives away
value. Bets like these are where the real money is made in NFL handicapping.
Another good source of hidden value are unpopular games. As I said
before, bookmakers handicap games extremely thoroughly. Since popular
match-ups are where the most money changes hands and the most vig
is generated, it makes sense for them to focus more on those games.
Unpopular games draw little betting action, thus they get less attention
from the bookmaker as well. Chances are you’ll happen upon
some overlooked value in these games.
As a general truth for sports betting: never flock with the masses.
Even if they’re right in their predictions, large masses of
bettors kill every value in a game. Always look for value on the
other side of the bet. You may not get it right the first and the
second time you try, but in the long-run, it’s the best way
to generate money out of NFL betting.
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