We all know there is no value in NFL betting without thorough handicapping. You’d have to be a mindless square to assume you could ever squeeze value out of matches without doing any handicapping at all. This is exactly the reason why many sports bettors resort to buying picks off the internet, or from their bookmaker. Obviously, these guys have recognized the importance of handicapping. The big question is: is it enough? Will buying NFL selections from well-known handicappers boost your betting? Will their predictions provide you enough value?
You see, the biggest issue in sports betting is not simply to predict which team will win this or that or the other matchup. You can bet the favorite all the time and not get much value out of the whole affair. Bookmakers release their lines according to the handicapping they themselves do. Well-established bookmakers have whole teams of handicappers working for them, and they twist and turn their lines until there is absolutely no juice left in them. This obviously means, betting the favorite will provide you with no edge whatsoever.
The bookmaker’s goal is to balance every single match-up as well as possible, to get an approximately equal number of bettors betting both sides of it. This way, they will able to pay out the winners from what the losers lose, and keep the vig (or juice) for themselves.
This is the ideal setup. In reality though, achieving the balance is damn near impossible. This is where your chance rears its head. There are certain match-ups that have the bookmaker at the mercy of the mass of bettors. Home underdog games are like this. People like a favorite so much, they bet one side of the bet in overwhelming numbers, even though home field advantage is one of the most underrated handicapping factors out there. Most squares completely disregard it.
Statistics show that home underdogs are capable of pulling out upsets SU (straight up) more often than the public would ever believe, and when it comes to ATS (against the spread) these dogs are downright good.
For some reason though, the public seems to repeatedly disregard these fact. They bet the favorite in such big numbers that the bookie is forced to shift his lines to compensate, against his better judgment. This is what gives birth to the hidden value you’re looking for. Sometimes the value is so obvious, even the bookmaker decides to make some money by going up against the squares.
This is your chance to generate some real value. As the bookie moves his lines to make squares bet the dog too, he inevitably gives away value. Bets like these are where the real money is made in NFL handicapping.
Another good source of hidden value are unpopular games. As I said before, bookmakers handicap games extremely thoroughly. Since popular match-ups are where the most money changes hands and the most vig is generated, it makes sense for them to focus more on those games.
Unpopular games draw little betting action, thus they get less attention from the bookmaker as well. Chances are you’ll happen upon some overlooked value in these games.
As a general truth for sports betting: never flock with the masses. Even if they’re right in their predictions, large masses of bettors kill every value in a game. Always look for value on the other side of the bet. You may not get it right the first and the second time you try, but in the long-run, it’s the best way to generate money out of NFL betting.
