Every which way you turn things around, last week was a good one for sports bettors. Many of the teams indicated as favorites to cover the spread did so.
Let us now see what next week has in store for our bettor, beginning with some of the possible knock-down and drag out performances.
As usual, one of these games is about the New England Patriots. Hosting the Washington Redskins, they are once again the obvious favorites. Whether they’ll make it 8-0-0 SU is not a question here, but whether they’ll succeed in covering the -16 spread slapped oto them is a different matter altogether.
You see, the expected margin for this game is about 14 and a half points, even though the Pats are slights favs to cover the Vegas spread. Anyway, as the season progresses, and as the Pats prove invincible time and time again, the spread naturally increases. It makes sense for the bookies to plug the leak in their boat. One of these days though, there’s going to be a huge upset nobody (or very few people) will foresee. Keep your eyes on the Pats for that. Not next week though. This is probably not going to be it.
If you’re looking for a team which is likely to cover, rest your eyes on the Titans. They’re a -7.5 favorites in their match-up against Oakland, but add home field advantage into the mix, and you’ll understand why the expected margin is 14.5.
Other components of the stew are: the fact that most consensus picks favor Oakland to cover the spread, and the not-too minor detail of QB Vince Young returning to Tennessee.
The 14.5 expected margin is based on analysis of similar historical games.
Do not search for hidden value in the Giants at Dolphins game either. Sure, there is a road fav involved, then there is the home underdog, but that’s about where circumstances cease to be right for a strategic upset bet.
Right now, after the loss of Ronnie Brown last week, The Dolphins wouldn’t be able to pull any upsets, no matter which team they went up against. Some folks call Miami “the Doormat of the NFL”. Their record certainly underlines that statement.
Giants are favs here with a -9.5 spread posted. While they’ll almost certain to win, covering the spread might be a tad difficult. Thos 9.5 points look awful generous to begin with, and at an 8.8 expected difference, New York might just fall short. Conclusion: SU: NY, ATS: Miami.
For one of the most interesting games of the week, check out Minnesota hosting Philly. While the teams are extremely close in terms of performance and value (the 1 point spread shows that well too), the weird thing is, Philly comes to the Vikings as favorite.
That’s right, that 1 point favors the Eagles, despite playing on the road against a near-equal team.
The fact that their QB will play with a broken index finger, or not play at all, would justify the odds here. The Vikings however, remain favorites to cover the spread.
