After last week’sthriller between the Pats and the Colts, week 10 can’t possibly throw anything at us that is remotely as interesting. Looks like the “irresistible force got the better of the apparently immovable object after all.
If you’re a sports bettor however, especially a skilled one at that, you probably know the potential value of un-interesting match-ups.
Well, then keep your eyes peeled this week:
Bouncing off a narrow defeat, the Colts are certain to be frustrated enough to look for some unfortunate team to blow off some steam on. While the San Diego Chargers are not exactly a push-over under regular circumstances, they’ll be on the receiving end of this week 10 match up. ( I was about to add “for sure”)
You see, even though there’s only a -3,5 spread given for the Colts, the likeliness of them winning this one is no less than 86%, and the expected point margin is not 7, but more like 9. That means they’re likely to cover the spread too. They’ll be on the road however, and one never knows how a loss affects the spirits of an otherwise winning team. Be on the lookout for some hidden value on the Chargers, just to stay on top of everything.
For a no-brainer, pick San Francisco at Seattle. This one is in the bag for the Seahawks. The extremely generous -10 point spread says a lot about the odds in this game. The expected margin is about 13 points though, so expect them to cover the spread. I personally do not see a whole lot of value in this one, but then again, what do I now…
The Lions at Cardinals is a much closer setup. Swings one way or the other are a lot more likely here, and we are talking about a road favorite (even though only a slight one) against a capable home underdog. The -1 point spread given on the Lions might not be enough though to hype them up enough to draw flocks of squares to their side. That means the uncovered value on the Cardinals might never appear. You never know though, and the stage is certainly set.
The expected point difference is 5-6 in favor of the Lions which means bookies will probably expect them to cover the spread.
My favorite team to follow – since the beginning of the season - has been Green Bay. This team, initially regarded as a non-contender, is proving to be one of the best teams in the entire NFL, and keeping uo the good work week after week. Coming off their win against KC last week, they once again enter a game as favorites. As -6 favorites to be exact, which is something considering that they’ll be hosting the Vikings.
The expected margin here is 9, so do not expect them to cover the spread.
The Steelers will be hosting the Browns as 10 point favorites. This one looks like its in the bag for them. The 10 points describe the situation accurately, with an expected margin of 13 points.
Experts say Pittsburgh will cover the Vegas spread too. They’re a 68% favorite for that.
